Weather-adjusted M&V for smart district-heating operation

01 · CASE ANALYSIS

Operating challenge

Fixed supply-temperature operation may not reflect outdoor temperature and hourly heating demand. Winter weather also differs between years, so raw Gcal comparisons cannot isolate operational savings.

Household and billing-meter heat consumption were examined together to distinguish changes on the supply side from changes in heating-service demand.

02 · CASE ANALYSIS

Data & baseline

The analysis used historical monthly heat consumption and HDD, 24-hour demand patterns for December–February, HDD demand bands and five-minute outdoor/supply-temperature records.

The published evaluation uses the report’s revised billing-meter baseline: Qbase (Gcal) = 1.1958 × HDD + 45.761, with R² = 0.996 and reported CV = 0.0271. A supplementary household baseline is Qhouse (Gcal) ≈ 0.8301 × HDD − 41.878, with R² ≈ 0.9937.

The source calls the statistic CV; this English edition does not relabel it CV(RMSE). Earlier baseline values that remain elsewhere in the original report are not used for this public savings table.

03 · CASE ANALYSIS

Smart-control approach

Supply temperature is represented as Ts = f(outdoor temperature, time of day, heating load). The analysis compares constant temperature, outdoor-air reset and smart control using five-minute patterns.

Hourly patterns were also reviewed within low HDD 6–13, middle HDD 14–21 and high HDD 22–30 bands to assess behavior across weather intensity, rather than relying only on monthly averages.

04 · CASE ANALYSIS

Reported M&V results

The revised baseline totals 2,185 Gcal over three months; actual billing-meter use totals 2,052 Gcal. The arithmetic difference is 133 Gcal, approximately 6.1% of the baseline.

The December, January and February results are 46 Gcal (6.6%), 39 Gcal (4.9%) and 48 Gcal (7.0%), respectively. These are source-reported, baseline-based results for the stated period, not a claim of independent certification or a universal annual savings rate.

05 · CASE ANALYSIS

Verification limits & transfer

For longer-term evaluation, examine occupancy, domestic hot water, complaints, setpoints and equipment changes in addition to HDD. Confirm comfort and compare household and supply-side meter behavior.

A weather-adjusted baseline makes the comparison more informative than simply comparing the same month in two different years. Future forecasting or operating recommendations are possible extensions, not additional demonstrated results of this case.